Technology Support for Collaborative Preparation of Emergency Plans

Indexación: Scopus.Preparing a plan for reaction to a grave emergency is a significant first stage in disaster management. A group of experts can do such preparation. Best results are obtained with group members having diverse backgrounds and access to different relevant data. The output of this stage should be a plan as comprehensive as possible, taking into account various perspectives. The group can organize itself as a collaborative decision-making team with a process cycle involving modeling the process, defining the objectives of the decision outcome, gathering data, generating options and evaluating them according to the defined objectives. The meeting participants may have their own evidences concerning people’s location at the beginning of the emergency and assumptions about people’s reactions once it occurs. Geographical information is typically crucial for the plan, because the plan must be based on the location of the safe areas, the distances to move people, the connecting roads or other evacuation links, the ease of movement of the rescue personnel, and other geography-based considerations. The paper deals with this scenario and it introduces a computer tool intended to support the experts to prepare the plan by incorporating the various viewpoints and data. The group participants should be able to generate, visualize and compare the outcomes of their contributions. The proposal is complemented with an example of use: it is a real case simulation in the event of a tsunami following an earthquake at a certain urban location. © 2019 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.https://www.mdpi.com/1424-8220/19/22/504

Retail Indicators Forecasting and Planning

We present a methodology to handle the problem of planning sales goals. The methodology supports the retail manager to carry out simulations to find the most plausible goals for the future. One of the novel aspects of this methodology is that the analysis is based not on current sales levels, as most previous works do, but on those in the future, making a more precise and accurate analysis of the situation. The work presents the solution for a scenario using three sales performance indicators: foot traffic, conversion rate and ticket mean value for sales, but it explains how it can be generalized to more indicators. The contribution of this work is in the first place a framework, which consists of a methodology for performing sales planning, then, an algorithm, which finds the best prediction model for a particular store, and finally, a tool, which helps sales planners to set realistic sales goals based on the predicted sales.  First we present the method to choose the best indicator prediction model for each retail store and then we present a tool which allows the retail manager estimate the improvements on the indicators in order to attain a desired sales goal level; the managers may then perform several simulations for various scenarios in a fast and efficient way. The developed tool implementing this methodology was validated by experts in the subject of administration of retail stores yielding good results

Supporting Collaborative Preparation of Emergency Plans

Effective preparedness for reacting in case of a severe emergency requires that many experts with various backgrounds evaluate the possible scenarios and come up with a single, unified plan which considers all opinions. This is a typical collaborative decision-making scenario, characterized by a process cycle involving modelling the process, defining the objectives of the decision outcome, gathering data, generating options and evaluating them according to the defined objectives. This is a decision-making scenario which requires the participation of various experts, who must evaluate and compare many scenarios. Each expert will have a partial knowledge about where people may be at the time of the emergency and how they will react. In emergency scenarios the geographical information often plays a significant importance, since plans need to consider the geography of the terrain from which the population should be evacuated, the safe areas where the population should be taken to, the ways connecting evacuations, and how the rescue teams can reach the places where the emergency occurred. This work presents a tool that can help a group of experts with various types of expertise, generate, visualize and compare the outcomes of various hypotheses. The paper also presents a real case simulation in the event of a tsunami following an earthquake at a site in northern Chile and the possibilities of evacuating people to safer zones

Planning of Urban Public Transportation Networks in a Smart City

Planning efficient public transport is a key issue in modern cities. When planning a route for a bus or a line for a tram or subway, it is necessary to consider people's demand for this service. In this work we present a method to use existing crowdsourced data (like Waze and OpenStreetMap) and cloud services (like Google Maps) to support a transportation network decision making process. The method is based on the Dempster-Shafer Theory to model transportation demand. It uses data from Waze to provide a congestion probability and data from OpenStreetMap to provide information about location of facilities such as shops, in order to predict where people may need to start or end their trips using public transportation vehicles. The paper also presents an example using this method with real data. The example shows an analysis of the current availability of public transportation stops in order to discover its weak points

Crowding on public transport using smart card data during the COVID-19 pandemic: New methodology and case study in Chile

Most crowding measures in public transportation are usually aggregated at a service level. This type of aggregation does not help to analyze microscopic behavior such as exposure risk to viruses. To bridge such a gap, our paper proposes four novel crowding measures that might be well suited to proxy virus exposure risk at public transport. In addition, we conduct a case study in Santiago, Chile, using smart card data of the buses system to compute the proposed measures for three different and relevant periods of the COVID-19 pandemic: before, during, and after Santiago’s lockdown. We find that the governmental policies diminished public transport crowding considerably for the lockdown phase. The average exposure time when social distancing is not possible passes from 6.39 min before lockdown to 0.03 min during the lockdown, while the average number of encountered persons passes from 43.33 to 5.89. We shed light on how the pandemic impacts differ across various population groups in society. Our findings suggest that poorer municipalities returned faster to crowding levels similar to those before the pandemic

Technology Support for Collaborative Preparation of Emergency Plans

Preparing a plan for reaction to a grave emergency is a significant first stage in disaster management. A group of experts can do such preparation. Best results are obtained with group members having diverse backgrounds and access to different relevant data. The output of this stage should be a plan as comprehensive as possible, taking into account various perspectives. The group can organize itself as a collaborative decision-making team with a process cycle involving modeling the process, defining the objectives of the decision outcome, gathering data, generating options and evaluating them according to the defined objectives. The meeting participants may have their own evidences concerning people’s location at the beginning of the emergency and assumptions about people’s reactions once it occurs. Geographical information is typically crucial for the plan, because the plan must be based on the location of the safe areas, the distances to move people, the connecting roads or other evacuation links, the ease of movement of the rescue personnel, and other geography-based considerations. The paper deals with this scenario and it introduces a computer tool intended to support the experts to prepare the plan by incorporating the various viewpoints and data. The group participants should be able to generate, visualize and compare the outcomes of their contributions. The proposal is complemented with an example of use: it is a real case simulation in the event of a tsunami following an earthquake at a certain urban location

The Future Role of HTML5 in Mobile Learning Scenarios

Today usually every student owns a reasonably powerful mobile device that allows to be integrated in scenarios. One of the drawbacks of the fast evolution of reasonably powerful devices, is the heterogeneity of that these kind of devices us ually bring with them. This paper provides an overview how rich mobile learning scenarios can be implemented platform independent on the basis of HTML5 and JavaScript. The paper presents a mobile learning application based on the principles of Situated Lea rning entirely developed in HTML5. The paper also presents the results of tests performed with the application which were aimed at finding out the difference in performance users perceived when compared with the native desktop version of the application and the added value that mobility introduces in learning activities

Forecasting Key Retail Performance Indicators Using Interpretable Regression

Foot traffic, conversion rate, and total sales during a period of time may be considered to be important indicators of store performance. Forecasting them may allow for business managers plan stores operation in the near future in an efficient way. This work presents a regression method that is able to predict these three indicators based on previous data. The previous data includes values for the indicators in the recent past; therefore, it is a requirement to have gathered them in a suitable manner. The previous data also considers other values that are easily obtained, such as the day of the week and hour of the day of the indicators. The novelty of the approach that is presented here is that it provides a confidence interval for the predicted information and the importance of each parameter for the predicted output values, without additional processing or analysis. Real data gathered by Follow Up, a customer experience company, was used to test the proposed method. The method was tried for making predictions for up to one month in the future. The results of the experiments show that the proposed method has a comparable performance to the best methods proposed in the past that do not provide confidence intervals or parameter rankings. The method obtains RMSE of 0.0713 for foot traffic prediction, 0.0795 for conversion rate forecasting, and 0.0757 for sales prediction